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F1 Rejects presents the Ultimate
F1 Season 2001 Preview
All the drivers, all the teams, all the opinionated babble! |
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In hindsight, the McLaren-Ferrari dominance of season 2000 really wasn't too hard to pick. This year, all things being equal, on paper there seems to be no way that any of the other teams can thoroughly close the gap on the top two. Williams and BAR are still on the improve, Benetton and Jordan have begun new associations, and Jaguar and Prost have to bounce back from miserable seasons.
But all things aren't equal this year. New aerodynamic regulations have resulted in all manner of front-wing designs, and their effect remains a big unknown. The imminent return of traction control may or may not have an effect. But the big question mark is tyres. Michelin entering the fray sees a tyre war for the first time in F1 since 1998, as they challenge Bridgestone's monopoly. A tyre war means softer rubber, and much faster lap times. But it also tends to mean that, on certain weekends, Bridgestone users will have all the advantage, and on others, Michelin will have read the track and weather conditions just right. In these situations, you can throw the form guide out the window. But assuming that both tyres will generally be closely matched, here are our bold predictions for season 2001. |
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| Ferrari | |
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Although the new aerodynamic regulations and the reintroduction of Michelin into F1 have thrown a spanner in the works, there is no reason why Ferrari shouldn't start season 2001 as favourites. Continuity is a great thing in F1, and all the ingredients that brought Maranello 10 poles, 10 wins and the championship double in 2000 remain.
Rumblings that key figures like Jean Todt and Luca di Montezemolo were thinking of calling it quits soon have been replaced by a new determination to turn Ferrari's success into a juggernaut. Ross Brawn remains the king of strategy, but it remains to be seen if Rory Byrne's curvaceous F2001, with the lowest nose of all, has hit the mark. It also remains to be seen if niggling reliability problems in testing will give way to famed Ferrari reliability. |
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Michael Schumacher has that endless Senna-like will to win that ensures he will not slacken off in any way this year. He says that records mean nothing to him, but who wouldn't want to be statistically the greatest of all time? Recent legal controversies seem unlikely to hinder him on the track, and should a particular circuit suit the Michelins, Michael will still get more out of his Bridgestones than anyone else. |
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Rubens Barrichello was steady but unspectacular as Schumacher's number two last year. If he bides his time and waits for the German's retirement, he may have the ability to lead Ferrari to glory on his own, but for 2001 he will remain Schumacher's on-track assistant. It would be good to see him get closer to Michael on the track, and recently breaking the Mugello lap record was a good sign. |
| McLaren/Mercedes | |
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Privately, Ron Dennis is supposed to be a personable chap, but professionally he is nothing short of scary. Perfectionism and success is his opium, and he even has the media jargon down pat, so much so that his McLaren outfit has the appearance of being cold and calculating.
The point, you ask? Ron would have been positively raging at losing both championships to Ferrari, a team that operates on a different wavelength, a philosophy he doesn't like much. Surely it's been a case of all hands on deck over the off-season, and the result should be another close battle with the Italian team. If anyone can get the regulations right it's Adrian Newey, but reliability has again been a bugbear for the new MP4/16. McLaren simply can't afford to lose early ground to Ferrari as in 2000. |
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The pressure is off Mika Hakkinen. He doesn't have a title to defend, and the second half of 2000 showed in glowing terms how without doubt only he (periodic exceptions being Villeneuve and Coulthard) can hold a candle to Michael Schumacher. He fits Ron Dennis' outlook on motor racing perfectly, and he is as much Ron's man as Schumacher is Jean Todt's. A sustained campaign in 2001 will give Schumi some serious migraines. |
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The pressure is on David Coulthard. How long can the Scot stay at McLaren and become as a championship contender in his own right without having to emerge from Hakkinen's shadow and go to another team to further his ambitions? He says the MP4/16 gives him confidence, but he must translate that into performances which match and even beat Hakkinen regularly, not just when Mika goes off the boil. |
| Williams/BMW | |
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No-one could have been unimpressed with BMW's methodical return to F1 in 2000, and many are predicting that Williams could provide Ferrari and McLaren with some stiff opposition from time to time. If that were the case, then that would be a welcome change, but internally Williams and BMW are treating 2001 as another step in the long developmental process, and that realism may be their strongest asset of all.
Gavin Fisher, Geoff Willis and their design team have become respected in the past two seasons for their aerodynamic nous, and the FW23 seems to have stuck to their design philosophies of previous years more than other teams. Undoubtedly, question marks hang over the Michelins, but Frank Williams may have done what McLaren did in 1998 by being the leading team to switch to Bridgestones. Should Michelin have the edge at any particular track, Williams will be the team to benefit. |
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We didn't think Ralf Schumacher did that bad a job last season, but Williams and Head both want to see improvement and more consistency from him. Furthermore, he is as proud as his brother, and will not like the idea of being beaten by his new rookie team-mate. If these factors spur him to raise his game to another level, he could be dynamite this season, and realistically ought to have the edge over Montoya. |
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People are lauding Juan-Pablo Montoya to the skies, but where does he stand on the talent stakes? Alongside Schumacher and Villeneuve? Alongside Button? Alongside Ralf? Few know the answer, and 2001 may not necessarily draw any conclusions. The Zanardi story shows that these new F1 cars are hard to get used to, and some difficulties in testing already show that this will be a learning year, but expect some fireworks. |
| Benetton/Renault | |
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For a mob that knows how to build F1 success, one might be surprised that Renault haven't followed the conservative BMW path, but have chosen to re-enter F1 with a revolutionary 111-degree engine. And, coupled to what appears to be a so-so chassis, from testing results it seems as though the gamble may not pull off. Reliability problems and a lack of pace from Benetton has been a feature of the off-season.
Although everyone in the team has said that testing is going according to plan, one wonders if being thrashed by the Prosts at Estoril was part of that plan. Fast-talking Flavio Briatore has remained noticeably quiet, except to say that Benetton won't win in 2001! New recruit Mike Gascoyne may have joined too late to do anything about the chassis, which features the ugliest front wing of all. A finish as low as 7th or 8th in the constructors' title is not out of the realms of possibility. |
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If Benetton haven't been sand-bagging over the winter, and really are that mediocre, then the news couldn't be worse for Giancarlo Fisichella. Flav's already put him on notice, and the only way for Fisi to rebuild his reputation was through a good car, a nice dose of confidence, and some results on the board. He won't get any of that if he's stuck in the midfield. 2001 runs the risk of ruining his F1 career. |
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It could be an equally testing time for Jenson Button. If nothing else it will be a test of how mature he really is. He should be consistently beaten by the Williams team that loaned him to Benetton, and it will be interesting to see how he responds. Will he knuckle down and make the best of what he's got, and thus keep impressing, or will he go nuts and throw the car into the scenery? |
| BAR/Honda | |
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BAR have cause to be confident in 2001. Their rise from laughing stock to podium contenders, and equal 4th (on points) in the constructors' championship was nothing short of sensational, and showed that a decent chassis with a strong engine, good reliability and some forceful driving could definitely go places. Despite Jacques Villeneuve's early criticism of the new car, there's no reason why those ingredients don't still exist.
There may also even be a semblance of managerial stability in the team this year. Craig Pollock has shown that, regardless of the challenges he will be at the helm, and for sticking it out he has earned others' grudging respect. The team is now seriously focussed on beating Jordan, who have the same Honda engines, and that battle should be fascinating. A top 4 finish in the constructors' title is more than possible. |
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Olivier Panis is, by all accounts, a very easy driver to out-psych. But nowadays he's also a selfless worker, and a consistently quick driver. On the other hand, Villeneuve is good at the mind games. But one gets the impression that Jacques appreciates the contribution Panis can make, and that's a big vote of confidence in the Frenchman, and it might just bring out the best in him. |
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Either Jacques Villeneuve is an eternal optimist, or he sees something in BAR that we don't. Or maybe he believes that his threats of walking out if the car doesn't perform will cause everyone else to lift their games. For while he shone last year, the fact is that if the BAR can't consistently challenge for podiums, then the Canadian's talents are going to waste. A three-way battle between Hakkinen, Schumacher and Villeneuve would be brilliant. |
| Jordan/Honda | |
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2000 wasn't exactly a disaster, but it came close to being that. A poor engine, and too revolutionary a chassis were their big problems, and Eddie Jordan can only hope that both of these have been sorted out. Having Honda engines is a plus, but also puts pressure to beat BAR, yet that could still be constructive. Despite the spectacular nose section (in every sense of the word), the EJ11 looks relatively conventional, and that should help.
However, there is cause for concern. Many key staff members have gone, including Mike Gascoyne and Sam Michael, and while gaining Eghbal Hamidy is a coup, the Iranian can help improve the new car, but ultimately it's not his design and there's only so much he can do in that situation. But generally, a top 5 finish in the constructors' championship should be within their reach. |
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If the car is up to it, Heinz-Harald Frentzen ought to lift his game. He did respectably in 2000, but perhaps didn't show the same spark as in 1999. From what he's said over the winter, it seems like he is depending on Jordan to give him a crack at consistent race wins. Why? He knows that, at 33, time is not on his side. If the Jordan doesn't deliver, one hopes that HHF won't simply drop the ball. |
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However, things are definitely bound to be better than in 2000, and that's good news for Jarno Trulli. He was despondent at the lack of results last year, but in truth he impressed many observers. He has speed to burn, and his racing skills are impressive. With some consistent points finishes, his confidence should rocket, and there's a good chance he'll show Frentzen the way this year. Outside bet for 5th in the championship. |
| Arrows/Asiatech | |
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This off-season has provided ample evidence of why Tom Walkinshaw is still yet to hit the big time in F1. Either that, or it's a sad indictment on the commercialised world of F1 these days. Firstly, they lost the dependable Supertec engine, and plumped for last year's disastrous Peugeot, now in the hands of a bunch of unknowns called Asia Motor Technology, otherwise known as AMT or Asiatech.
Secondly, they couldn't hold on to Eghbal Hamidy, but at least he worked on the new A22. Most importantly, they dumped star driver Pedro de la Rosa when the Spaniard's sponsor, Repsol, demanded more space on the car. If I were Walkinshaw, having seen de la Rosa's performances last year, and knowing that with the Asiatech I'd be up against it in 2001, I would have redesigned the car to give Repsol the space, just to keep my best driver! |
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Jos Verstappen was pretty much out-driven by de la Rosa last year, except in the rain in Canada and at Monza. He's probably not quite lived up to all the expectations surrounding him when he burst onto the scene in 1994. Should the Arrows/Asiatech package not be anything special, the Dutchman seems unlikely to make any impression from midfield mediocrity. Points will be a bonus. |
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De la Rosa's misfortune was Enrique Bernoldi's gain, the Brazilian unwanted by Sauber and scratching around to find a deal. Really, his record suggests he's not the next Senna, and one senses that he feels a bit sheepish at having to fill de la Rosa's shoes. But that may actually be a good starting point there is little pressure on him, and under these circumstances he'll get a good chance to learn, and might surprise. |
| Sauber/Petronas (Ferrari) | |
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Last year we slammed Peter Sauber's outfit as conservative, stagnant and directionless. This year it seems as though they've turned the corner, but have the turned the right ones? For once it's all change at Hinwil, with two new young drivers, an unheard-of designer in Stephen Taylor, and even a new sponsor in Credit Suisse, primed to take over when the partnership with Red Bull supposedly ends after this year (note the smaller Red Bull logo this year, but 1 out of 10 for the white nose).
But will all this make a difference when Sauber hits their perennial snag, the mid-season, when other teams continue development but Sauber doesn't? In the past, the team had experience but no enthusiasm. Now they have enthusiasm but no experience. Season-long development requires both. A plus point, though, is the customer Ferrari engine from last year, which is as close to a works powerplant as you'll find. |
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This will be a year in which Nick Heidfeld has to grow up fast. After one character-building season at Prost, he is now expected to lead Sauber on the track, plus set the direction in terms of set-up and development throughout the season. And he's not even 24 yet. He's shown the sort of speed in testing that we've always known he has, but he'll have to do so in the race environment with the weight of the team on his shoulders. |
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Enough has been said about whether or not Kimi Raikkonen deserves to be in F1 - our personal views can be found here. The fact is, he's there, and on pace alone he can hack it. It will be interesting to see how he responds to the pressures of a GP weekend, though. If he can hold his own throughout the season, then good on him, and good on Peter Sauber, but one false step and the fickle F1 fraternity will tear him apart. Not a nice position to be in. |
| Jaguar/Cosworth | |
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Dud year number two or a repeat of BAR 2000, that's the question everyone's asking. Jaguar has gone through a wholesale change of personnel, bringing in Bobby Rahal, Steve Nichols, and even Niki Lauda, and dumping Gary Anderson. Having said that, managerial upheaval is never a platform for instant success, and clearly this is a team putting a structure in place for the future.
But it's a structure that didn't come up with the design of the R2, and like Hamidy at Jordan and Gascoyne at Benetton, it's a case of making do and coping with what they've got. Yet in testing, what they've got seems to be way off the pace. One wonders what Rahal means when his aim for the year is to achieve respectability. In F1, when your budget is more like Jaguar's than Minardi's, respectability only comes through results, and results may be very hard to come by this year. |
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Worse still, media speculation has it that the team isn't impressed by Eddie Irvine. His strength of character and his desperation for success seems to be at odds with the 2001 Jaguar philosophy, and signing Pedro de la Rosa from under Prost's nose must unnerve even him. He must simply stay quiet, go out and try his best, remembering that despite his lack of success last year, he lost no-one's respect for his speed and dedication. |
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His team-mate, Brazilian Luciano Burti, has slipped quietly into an F1 race seat without anyone noticing. He worked well in testing last year, but he was no Panis, and his one-off race in Austria was solid but ever so unspectacular. But let's not forget that this man beat Jenson Button in 1999. If the Jaguar proves reliable, this could be a golden chance for him to learn off some wise old heads and develop into a useful GP driver. |
| Minardi/European | |
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We're immensely pleased that Aussie entrepreneur Paul Stoddart has saved the Minardi team. Not only does it mean that the traditional battlers live on to fight another day, it also means that up and coming Aussie drivers will have one team sure to lend them an ear. Stoddart is taking one hell of a financial gamble with this venture, and one hopes that sponsors will be forthcoming. Even at the back of the grid, the exposure's worth it.
Unfortunately, results won't be forthcoming. It doesn't matter how good a design Gustav Brunner has come up with, a car that barely tests prior to the first race is running the risk of emulating Lola in 1997. The engine will be a development of last year's, which was a development of 1999's, which was 1998's Ford works engine. It won't be a surprise if the Minardis don't always qualify, but no-one's expecting much, and everyone understands the situation. |
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However, like for Luciano Burti, this is one fantastic opportunity for Fernando Alonso to learn his craft in the top flight with little pressure. At 19 he'll be just a tiny bit older than Mike Thackwell, the youngest driver ever to start a GP. It is a year of incredible up-and-coming, potentially world-beating talent, and Alonso's name can be added to the list that includes Button, Montoya and Raikkonen. This guy's special keep an eye on him. |
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In the other seat, Tarso Marques brings some F1 and Champ car experience, as well as some welcome sponsorship. The Brazilian is no slouch behind the wheel either, and has developed a reputation for a methodical approach. Some sterling efforts in America last year, notably at Houston in the unfashionable Swift chassis, show that his driving has matured as well. Though still young, he will be a valuable asset to the team. |
| Prost/ACER (Ferrari) | |
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After their unspeakably disastrous 2000, it just has to get better for Prost, and it will in 2001. Alain Prost has reasserted himself at the top, while Joan Villadelprat brings his undoubted managerial skills. Investment from PSN and the Diniz clan will no doubt solve a lot of the cash worries, although a little bit more financial security would give the team much-needed breathing room.
At the moment, much of that money is going into paying for the Ferrari engine and gearbox from last year, but it's a darn good investment. Now they have to solve the other sticking point from last year, the car's aerodynamics. Qualifying trim or not, their remarkable testing performance suggests that the AP04 is a step in the right direction. Reliability also seems to be present, but a good development driver would have been useful. 6th in the constructors' championship is not out of reach. |
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All this should be enough to bring Jean Alesi back to his best. Although being outpaced at times by Nick Heidfeld last year wasn't too smart, the common view is that Alesi has lost none of his pace. His experience will be invaluable, and his ability to wring the best out of the car even when the tyres are going off will be a major advantage on weekends when his Michelins are off the boil. Podiums are not out of the question. |
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It will be interesting to see how Gaston Mazzacane responds. He's not the worst pay-driver of all time, and at least he's steady. When his new boss Pedro Diniz joined Ligier from Forti in 1996, the chance to race solidly in midfield saw his performances pick up dramatically, and he developed into a respectable racer. Now Mazzacane has a similar opportunity, and he might just do exactly the same. Of course, he might not - and Prost might be rueing their loss of Pedro de la Rosa as a backup. |
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The gap to McLaren and Ferrari is too great to bridge immediately, so those two teams should battle it out at the top. But after that, Williams, BAR and Jordan should be closely-matched, while Prost, Benetton and Sauber will be scrambling for more than the odd point. Jaguar seems content to consolidate, while Arrows will be left behind, and Minardi will be well off the pace. REJECTS IN 2001:
• Minardi |
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