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F1 Rejects presents the Ultimate
F1 Season 2002 Preview
All the drivers, all the teams, all the opinionated babble! |
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As a general rule in F1, stable rules produce good racing, as teams creep ever closer to the ultimate design of a Grand Prix car for a particular set of regulations. Apart from the raising of front wings and the relatively seamless re-entry of electronic 'driver aids' last year, the truth is that the rules governing F1 haven't changed a great deal for the past few seasons since the introduction of grooved tyres and narrow-track chassis.
2001 proved the point by being one of the more genuinely competitive seasons in recent memory, in everything but the final scoreboard. Sure, Michael Schumacher and Ferrari ran away with things, but in all honesty there were three top flight teams providing drivers capable of winning races on a regular basis. Yet if 2001 was good, 2002 will be even better. This could be one of the most closely-fought seasons on record. Ferrari will not, should not walk into both titles so easily this year. The McLaren chassis looks ominously improved, and the Williams package can only be more reliable. Sauber seems set to continue their 2001 form while BAR and Jordan have taken steps forward. Renault's giant strides towards the end of 2001 make them a real sleeper in the 2002 field, while Arrows and Minardi could surprise. No one is quite sure how the new Toyotas will fare, and Jaguar feels like the only team not to have hit the ground running. The tyre war, which lowered lap times so dramatically last year, can only be fiercer this year, although ironically McLaren's defection to Michelin may just give Ferrari, now the only top team on Bridgestones, a real edge. Add to that a few new drivers (including an Aussie!) and new driver/team/designer combos, and the green flag can't wave on the 2002 season fast enough. Time, then, for our annual fearless crystal-ball gazing. |
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| Ferrari | |
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How do you top 2001? Last year, Ferrari had just about the best car, the second-best engine, the best reliability, the best driver in the world, and the most consistency. Apart from Barrichello's results, in many ways it felt like Ferrari had hit the absolute limit of performance, and it's hard to comprehend how the Prancing Horse could improve. Of course Todt, Brawn, Byrne and co will try to make the Ferrari even better the revolutionary gearbox and side-pod aerodynamics on the F2002 are proof of that.
One wonders, though, whether the late introduction of the F2002, and the rapid decision to start the season with the F2001, are signs that even Ferrari don't think they can take that much of a step forward. Certainly it's much easier to envisage other teams catching up rather than Ferrari taking another technological leap ahead. Staying on Bridgestones, though, is a masterstroke; as the only top team on them, the tyres will be tailored to their needs. Still the team to beat, but will have more of a fight on their hands. |
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In 2002, Michael Schumacher will attempt to emulate the legendary Juan-Manuel Fangio in winning a hat-trick of titles and becoming a five-time champion. There's little doubt that he's committed enough, hungry enough, fit enough and certainly fast enough. He won't have it all his own way though. It will be interesting to see which of Barrichello's stubbornness, Coulthard's consistency, Montoya's aggression, his brother's independence and Raikkonen's speed ruffles his feathers the most. |
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I've called Rubens Barrichello stubborn because once again he's talking up his chances of beating Michael. He just doesn't get it, does he? Irvine earned much respect as the thankless Ferrari number 2 simply because he got near Schumacher. Let's face it, last year Rubens regularly collected points, but rarely was he the one after Schumi. He must walk before he tries to run; he must get close to Michael before he entertains thoughts of beating him. And in the meantime, he'll have to face team orders. Simple as that. |
| McLaren/Mercedes | |
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In hindsight, 2001 was the year that had to happen. The long-standing elements at McLaren finally got stale, and the proof was in the pudding. For much of the year the cars from Woking simply were not competitive compared to the Ferrari and the Williams, Hakkinen's driving was not up to scratch, and even Adrian Newey was tempted to leave the team. 2001 was the year to stir McLaren into action, and if the aerodynamics and test showings of the MP4/17 are any indication, they're ready to return to the very top.
There are a few question marks remaining, though. One is over the new Mercedes engine, which is down on power, but only on certain circuits is straight-line grunt of dramatic importance. If Newey's aerodynamics are up to scratch, any power deficit can be largely made up. The other question surrounds the impact of Hakkinen's departure, although the fact that he's not entirely out of the picture will allow for easier adjustment. A much better year ahead for McLaren, maybe even the constructors' crown. |
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There's no doubt about it, this is David Coulthard's big chance. Sure Raikkonen is fast and will beat the Scot from time to time, but to use a boxing analogy, over 17 rounds DC can feel confident that he will emerge with the points decision. Now he can afford to fully concentrate on beating the Michael Schumacher and the Williams drivers. 2001 showed that finally he seems able to string consistent top-class performances together. If he carries that form into 2002, then for once he may be a genuine title contender. |
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Kimi Raikkonen's rise has been meteoric, to say the least. But the McLaren drive may not be the bed of roses that it seems. It's clear that he was chosen because he's a Finn and can be a sort of Mini-Mika, and he may find that level of expectation hard to cope with. How well he can sustain his brilliant performances over a whole season is still unclear. He needs to understand that he hasn't made it yet, and that he still has a huge amount of learning to do. But it's more than likely he'll claim his first victory in 2002. |
| Williams/BMW | |
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If only they had reliability on their side, Williams would have come 2nd in the constructors' championship last year. It's fair enough to expect that BMW in particular will have got that aspect of the game right for this year. But strangely, now it's the FW24 chassis' turn to look like letting the side down. I wonder if Geoff Willis' departure to BAR has had an impact, and also if Williams have entertained thoughts of doing a Ferrari and running last year's car in the meantime?
Williams may also have reason to fear in two other areas. Now that McLaren have switched to Michelins, if the silver cars get an upper hand early in the season, Michelin may start tailoring the rubber to suit DC and Kimi. Williams no longer have a monopoly on the fruits of Michelin's labours. Also, the Ralf v JPM rivalry continues to simmer, and the dilemma looms where even if team orders are employed they may not be followed. Having said that, if all goes according to plan, Williams should challenge for both titles. |
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Ralf Schumacher seriously needs to regroup for the start of the new year. One can't help but feel that Montoya is getting the upper hand, and there's no doubt that JPM is more of the racer that Frank and Patrick like. If the Colombian adds consistency to his racecraft, Ralf could be left in his wake. Perhaps we could say that Ralf is a little bit too German in his driving; a little bit of Latin mongrel in a dogfight situation would do him good. He also needs to believe that he can beat JPM; I sense he doesn't at the moment. |
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Schumi always says he will contemplate retirement when he sees a youngster toppling him from his perch. Many feel, with good reason, that Juan-Pablo Montoya is that man. Last year he lived up to the hype. Crucially, he learnt from his errors and adapted to the F1 style of driving. What's more, he spiced it up a little with his own expressive aggression, made relatively few driving mistakes, got let down by the car, and took it all with refreshing good humour. The prediction is simple: with a reliable car, he will challenge for the title. |
| Sauber/Petronas (Ferrari) | |
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No one disagrees that the Saubers were brilliant in 2001. The best-balanced chassis in F1 that got better as the year progressed, plus two stunning drivers and a title-winning engine combined to give the Swiss outfit a well-deserved and unexpected 4th. With the rules remaining just about unchanged for 2002, it's no surprise that the new C21 is really only a C20 update, and there'll be little wrong with either it, or the drivers, or last year's 800+ bhp Ferrari engine.
Great testing times indicate that Sauber may even be ready to pull off a breakthrough win. But without wishing to be a cynic, though, in the long-term problems lie ahead. Whether or not they stay 4th in the constructors' title largely depends on how the better-funded Renault, Jordan and BAR perform. Sauber's destiny is not in their hands. And without a top-line chief designer nor seemingly a rich financial package, as soon as the regulations change they'll be in trouble. Sauber fans, enjoy 2002 while it lasts. |
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Apart from Schumi, we called Nick Heidfeld the best-performed driver in F1 last year. Shame that no-one else seemed to take notice. Shame also that Nick came out and had a moan about it. Another Frentzen when it comes to Germanic sensitivity, Nick won't like the fact that he's up against another young hot-shot in Massa. It's a no-win situation. If he beats Massa, he's expected to do so; if he doesn't, Massa gets all the glory. Nick needs to maintain last year's consistency, and hope that this time people will care. |
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What is it with the Brazilian talent factory? By all accounts, Felipe Massa can be as good as Raikkonen was last year, and he already has experience in F3000 (albeit European, not International) to boot. There's less hype surrounding him than there was around Kimi, and that will be a help, but undoubtedly he will be under pressure to impress, and there will be constant comparison with the now-McLaren driver. Massa seems cool enough to handle it though. My tip for rookie of the year. |
| Jordan/Honda | |
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In hindsight, Jordan only appeared so good back in '99 because the top teams were not always reliable, and not as technologically advanced compared to the rest of the field as they are now. The sooner EJ realises his team's place below the top three, and the sooner he concentrates on beating Sauber, BAR and Renault, the more his team will treat mere points finishes as positive platforms for improvement rather than failures, and the better off Jordan will be.
Both Jordan and BAR also suffer from the fact that Honda appears more like a works engine supplier than a technical partner, although the new motor looks the goods. Hopefully Jordan's late launch this season doesn't indicate behind-the-scenes problems, and the fact that Eghbal Hamidy is part of the EJ12's radical aerodynamics should be a cause for optimism. With Fisichella on board, they could consistently score points and the odd podium, but if a team is going to pull off a surprise win, I'd back Sauber instead. |
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What a difference a year has made for Giancarlo Fisichella! From being a mercurial talent to the best driver in F1 apart from Schumi, according to Jean Alesi. Certainly, if he continues his 2001 form, he will be the difference between whether Jordan merely scores points or actually lands a podium. Furthermore, Fisi's long-term contract brings stability, and that could reap rewards, especially if Sato can't challenge him as pre-season testing suggests he won't. |
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Not much has been made of this, but Takuma Sato is a man under pressure in 2002. He not only carries the hopes of his countrymen, he's Honda's chosen one and has been labelled the best Japanese driver yet. That's a big call for a man moving from F3 to F1, which is still a big jump when all is said and done. His testing times haven't been electric, and some short-sighted people will call him a disappointment this year. Without good reason I won't; Sato is very good, but he'll need time to justify his place. |
| BAR/Honda | |
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BAR will be one of the intriguing question marks of 2002. Craig Pollock's departure for David Richards could have been the recipe for disharmony and acrimony. But in winter testing, the Brackley team have gone about honing the 04 chassis in a quiet but methodical manner. Very Richards-like indeed. In other words, Richards has managed to quickly mould the team around his unpretentious but hugely successful formula, and that alone is reason for optimism.
Now even Villeneuve is now talking up the new car, and with the new Honda engine an improvement, the Honda deal secured for a few more seasons despite Jordan having taken Sato from under their nose, and Geoff Willis on board to get the aerodynamics right, this could be platform for real progress. Richards' aim for 2002 is to score points; that will most likely be achieved, although Sauber and Renault are probably ahead of them at this stage. Still, a dark horse not to be discounted at any race. |
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Perhaps Jacques Villeneuve was a little bit too comfy with Pollock at the helm. His heart made him want to stay with BAR, and as long as he wanted to Pollock would let him. When the car was a dog last year and he couldn't be bothered, he turned in his least impressive performances in F1 so far. Richards has now made it clear that Villeneuve is disposable if he doesn't perform. That should be enough to wake him out of his slumber. Surely he's still 'got it'. Expect him to bounce back strongly in 2002. |
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Olivier Panis should respond well to Richards' unassuming style of leadership. Although he didn't score many points, he impressed in 2001 with his attitude and hard work. Although he's one of the most reliable men on the track, he's not as naturally fast or good as Villeneuve, and quite rightly used the Canadian as something of a benchmark. When Jacques' performances dropped, so did Olivier's. If JV comes back stronger this year, Panis will similarly improve. Regular points finishes a real possibility. |
| Renault | |
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There was never any doubt that Renault would make it to the top. It was just that no one was quite sure how fast they would get there, and no-one expected how low their starting point last year would be. But by the end of 2001 the Benettons were quite comfortably mixing it at the top of 'tier two'. With Mike Gascoyne sure to have produced another aerodynamically-efficient chassis, and the wide-angle Renault engine improving day by day, the return of the Regie as a constructor could be seriously impressive.
Pre-season testing times have been encouraging, and they seem quite able to reach 4th in the constructors' championship. They may not quite challenge for wins this year, but podiums are a real possibility, and they could be looking ominous as early as 2003. They have two hungry and fit drivers, loads of resources and capable personnel and a team boss who doesn't make friends but gets results. If anything, their only distraction this year will be their putrid colour scheme. Watch for Renault in 2002. |
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Jarno Trulli is determined to prove his critics wrong this year. No one doubts his qualifying speed, but his ability to maintain a consistently fast race pace has come under fire. He feels like he's wasted two years at a stagnant Jordan, but having been one of Flav's men since 1996, he must also feel as though driving for Renault (Benetton) is his destiny. By replacing Fisichella he has massive shoes to fill, but added motivation will come from having Button, with whom he's had a fair share of run-ins, as his team-mate. |
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On the contrary, Jenson Button wants to prove his doubters wrong. There is a big difference between critics and doubters, folks. The reigning Reject of the Year, with good reason too, he needs to show that he is driven enough and committed enough to give his all, and most importantly to make his car work for him, which he couldn't do last year. With Alonso in the wings, and the Williams drivers seemingly sewn up, Button is literally driving for his F1 future. At the end of 2000, who'd have thought we'd be saying that? |
| Jaguar/Cosworth | |
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What a mess! In contrast to all the hype that surrounded their entry, or maybe directly because of it, Jaguar is fast running the risk of becoming the most public flop F1 has seen for a very long time. The inherent problems that were within the team, such as its relatively inexperienced crew and its constant management instability, have now been exacerbated by September 11 and it's economic effects, the departure of Jac Nasser as Ford CEO, and the apathy and proud ignorance of Ford's top brass towards F1.
It's now a terrible cycle. The threat that Ford will pull the plug has placed a premium on results. Jag's boss is thus the no-nonsense Niki Lauda, who polarises all and sundry, and thus can't draw top people in. The desperation has meant that whenever there's a problem (e.g. with the new R3's front wing), someone gets the chop, like Steve Nichols, and the instability increases. Instability means no results, and Ford becomes more and more annoyed. Result: tough times ahead if they can't miraculously get the R3 right. |
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Unfortunately, for all his speed, skill and technical feedback, Eddie Irvine's outspokenness has now made him a persona non grata to some within the team. When combined with his results, more the car's fault than his, he's beginning to annoy F1 fans big time. And when combined with his extortionate salary, he's also probably beginning to annoy Ford's executives big time. If he doesn't tread carefully, he'll soon discover that he's expendable. Shame he can't just let his driving do the talking, which it so often does. |
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Pedro de la Rosa is a bit like a musician on the Titanic. He's quietly getting on with the job, and you can be sure he'll continue giving his all until the sinking ship goes down. While all the attention centres on Irvine, de la Rosa can be just as fast, and once he gets going in races he's a steady, reliable and quick performer, although prone to the wild first lap desperado from time to time. A good tester, he has as much chance of honing the R3 as anyone else. Both he can Irvine will drive to the limit. The rest is up to the car. |
| Arrows/Cosworth | |
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On paper, Arrows should have a good year. They will have a powerful engine in the shape of the latest-spec Cosworth, a wily team boss in Tom Walkinshaw, an experienced race-winner in Frentzen and an improving youngster in Bernoldi. The new A23 chassis, designed by the able Mike Coughlan, should be OK, even though it goes for an ultra-high nose just as everyone starts opting for low noses like last year's Ferrari. But these are all good elements which ultimately have to be gelled together.
One wonders if Arrows are going to squander this opportunity. Walkinshaw has now shafted a driver late in the pre-season for the second year in a row, creating confusion for all concerned. Verstappen will sue and his sponsors have walked out of the team in protest, so finances now look slim. The new package was the last to start testing, and the A23 seems to have a fragile rear wing. Where they ought to be nibbling at the likes of Sauber, Jordan and BAR, they look like battling with Jaguar and Toyota instead. |
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Verstappen will pull a lot of sympathy votes from within the Arrows team and from the F1 community at large. That's bad news for Heinz-Harald Frentzen. Despite trying his best for Prost, he is another of those talents who's missed the boat. He still has a lot of experience and speed to offer, but he doesn't have the bullish qualities Verstappen possessed, and he's no up and coming youngster any more. 2002 is a crucial year to show us, to show Walkinshaw, and to show himself whether or not he is still F1 material. |
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Enrique Bernoldi goes into his second year in F1 with the jury still out but willing to give him a second chance. He out-qualified Verstappen 10-7 last year, but the Dutchman has always been a shocking qualifier. When it really mattered in the races, Bernoldi was not as fast, but showed that he has some good racing skills, and heck, he certainly knows how to block! His cool relationship with the team is thankfully thawing, and as long as he keeps improving, in 2002 he could score his first World Championship points. |
| Minardi/Asiatech | |
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Asiatech engines, two Australasian drivers, heavy Malaysian backing, an Aussie team boss a South-East Asian superteam. Or so Paul Stoddart would like us to think. The sad truth is, although the Asiatechs are a step up, and better than the ancient Fords used last year, they will remain the most gutless motor in the field, although admittedly a little nearer the cutting edge. Plus many other teams have taken an obvious step up. Depending on how Jaguar and Toyota go, Minardi seem destined to go back to the back.
In previous years, low-powered engines could be offset by brilliant Gustav Brunner chassis, but this year there's no such luxury. No disrespect, though, to the likes of John Walton, Rupert Manwaring, and especially Loic Bigois, the Prost evacuee who's given the PS02 a very Prost AP04-like nosecone. Also, though it provides a rich source of funds, one questions the wisdom of putting all their financial eggs in the Malaysian basket. Good for temporary business, but the long term? Points will be a bonus even if possible. |
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Even if a tipsy Jean Alesi thinks he's quick, the fact is that Alex Yoong is a pay driver. To be fair, he's no slouch behind the wheel, but he's no future World Champion either. His greatest strengths are his willingness to test and work hard, perfect in a modern F1 driver, and his media-savvy presentation. Having said that, he will provide slow and steady Mazzacanesque performances this year, but as long as his country bankrolls the team he'll always have a seat with them, and with experience he can only improve. |
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Mark Webber got into F1 because Telstra has thrown in a few sponsorship dollars, because he's had Flavio Briatore in his corner, and because he's an Aussie and so is the team boss. Oh, and because he's quick. Very quick. Quick enough to have been a works Mercedes aerial gymnast, and to have been a Benetton test driver last year. Can be prone to the odd off-road excursion, but Felipe Massa aside will be rookie of the year. Expect Alonso-like performances, and maybe even a point or two. |
| Toyota | |
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For all the hype, Toyota actually enjoys the enviable position of being under relatively little pressure. Unlike Jaguar they have no delusions of grandeur; unlike the Ford top brass, Toyota seems committed to the long-term, even pulling out of other series to concentrate on F1. They come in with an excellent budget and plenty of staff, plus a year of test miles under their belts. And they haven't shirked away from the fact that the test times recorded last year were simply pathetic.
Thankfully, the new TF102 chassis looks lean compared to the cumbersome TF101 test car. Credit for that goes to Gustav Brunner; Minardi may not like it, but business is business and money talks in F1. It remains to be seen, though, whether or not basing the team in Germany is folly or genius. Don't expect much by way of results, but Toyota are here to learn, which is a wise and laudable approach, and where better to learn than at the humble end of the grid? |
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It will be a crucial year for Mika Salo, however. He took 2001 off to test with Toyota, hoping to re-enter this year in a blaze of glory, but that won't happen. His age and his contract with Toyota means this project is really his last F1 chance. He won't enjoy having to bunker down for the long midfield haul again, and now that the other Mika is out of the picture, he certainly won't enjoy the fact that Raikkonen is the new Flying Finn. It will be tempting, but he must not allow himself to drop the ball in 2002. |
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Talk about last chances this may be the only chance for Allan McNish. Age is not on his side, even if vast experience and success in other categories is. Toyota's young driver program, plus the fact that anointed Toyota man Toranosuke Takagi is waiting in the wings, mean that after this year of consolidation Toyota may well bank on the exuberance of youth, Sauber-style. McNish will therefore need to pull out something very special and regularly beat Salo to avoid becoming a one-season wonder. |
| Conclusion | |
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2002 is too hard to pick, and we're too cowardly to nominate a drivers' or constructors' champion. The drivers' title will come down to a three-way stoush between Michael Schumacher, Coulthard and Montoya, and the constructors' will be fought out by their respective teams. Sauber and Renault will battle it out for 4th, with Sauber most likely having the upper hand of those two in the first half of the season, before Renault begins to draw ahead and nibble at the top runners in the latter half.
The two Honda teams, Jordan and BAR, will both regularly be able to pick up minor points, but at this rate will require something special from either Fisichella or Villeneuve to elevate them higher. Arrows might just have the advantage over fellow Cosworth-powered Jaguar, and could score 8th in the title. Jaguar look like languishing with Minardi and Toyota to fight it out for the wooden spoon, although I would be very glad to be proven wrong, and to see the leaping cats mix it in the midfield and above. |
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