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F1 Rejects presents the Ultimate
F1 Season 2003 Preview
All the drivers, all the teams, all the opinionated babble! |
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| Ferrari | |
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Whatever anyone else says or does, Ferrari should again win both titles as they have done for the past three years, but it is just to be hoped that they are pushed harder in getting there. The F2002, with which Ferrari will start 2003, was such a formidable package, others have their work cut out simply to match it. And 'package' is the key word. It perfected every area of the car, and you get the impression that they weren't overly depending on electronics, so the new rules won't necessarily end their juggernaut.
Ross Brawn says the F2003-GA is leaps and bounds better still; he would say that, of course, but frankly it's hard to comprehend that the F2003-GA can be as big a gain over the F2002 as the F2002 was over the F2001, so that ought to give hope to the other teams. But with their superb organisation, professional and devoted mechanics, flawless race strategies, and tailor-made Bridgestones, they will still be the team to beat. It will be interesting to see how they handle the ban on team orders though, if at all. |
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The bad news for everyone else is that Michael Schumacher is still hungry for more. He will be looking for his 6th World Championship and the 70-win mark, as well as any other records he doesn't hold. Hard to see him being thwarted in his current mood. Being the best driver in the world, he will also cope best with all the new rules, although he may occasionally be over-ragged in shoot-out qualifying. Has won no fans, though, for suggesting that he prefers cars with driver aids for the sake of achieving perfection. |
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Behind Schumi, Rubens Barrichello is the second-most experienced driver in F1. And there is no doubt now that he has the mental stability to match his speed. If Ferrari comply with the ban on team orders, Rubinho may be able to run Michael close from time to time. Even if Schumi takes the title, he can definitely come 2nd again on his own, and even without as much of a car advantage. Smooth style will be well-suited to the new qualifying format. Expect a handful of poles and wins throughout the year. |
| Williams/BMW | |
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The pundits can't all be wrong. Everyone is saying that McLaren and not Williams will provide the sternest challenge to Ferrari in 2003. The early testing performances of the more curvy, tight-waisted FW25 have not exactly been flattering. This was always going to be the danger of risking all on a radically new car. Who's to say that it would definitely work? One advantage is that Williams are testing the FW25 already whereas McLaren's MP4/18 has not arrived yet, but the Ferrari F2003-GA is also doing the testing rounds.
Much will also depend on how far Williams can actually develop this car, as there were very clear limits to how much improvement they could squeeze out of the FW24 last year. The Michelin tyres seem to be much better than last year - but they had to be, really. And with the ban on radio communications to come in the future, now is the time for Williams to work on detailed strategies and protocols between their two drivers, an area where Ferrari have had a distinct edge, and where Williams have made mistakes. |
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On one hand, with greater emphasis back on the driver, you could say that this would benefit a natural talent such as Juan-Pablo Montoya. On the other hand, last year showed that Montoya could drive very fast, but over a race distance he was not always able to keep his head and maintain his speed. He needs to add consistency to his performance this year. And though he took 7 poles last year, many were last-ditch efforts on his fourth flying lap. This year, he won't have the chance to have so many gos. |
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This is a crucial year for Ralf Schumacher - again. He had become the epitome of an F1 driver in the electronic age, piloting a car around consistently lap after lap. But since 1999 he really has failed to do anything special to demonstrate that what talent he has. He hasn't gathered his team around him as his brother has done at Ferrari, and instead Montoya is the one the Williams men gravitate to. His staid approach on and off the track may leave him dropping quickly behind more zealous rivals in 2003. |
| McLaren/Mercedes | |
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There's something strange going on at Woking, but you assume that there's detailed method in what they're doing. Ron Dennis' men have spent all winter working on the interim MP4/17D, coupled to much-improved Michelin tyres and a new generation Ilmor Mercedes engine that has taken giant strides to erase the power deficit they suffered last year. Blistering testing times suggest that this is a package that could take the fight up to the Ferrari F2002 in the first few races, and get McLaren's title bid off to a great start.
But where is the MP4/18, due to debut at Imola in April? No sign of it yet, whereas the FW25 and the F2003-GA are pounding the test tracks. One gets the impression that it's part of an intricate long-term battle plan to use the MP4/17D to get off to the best possible start, phase in a slightly under-prepared MP4/18 and hope that it can hang in there, score some wins, take 2nd in the constructors' title, and set themselves up for the mother of all concerted championship bids in 2004 using an evolution of the MP4/18. |
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It should be another very respectable year for David Coulthard. In terms of raw speed he was edged out slightly by Räikkönen in '02, but it was his determination and consistency in races plus the Finn's appalling reliability that saw the Scot ahead on points. Coulthard's professionalism and experience, knowing that he has to focus on his own race and not worry about his team-mate, will be his greatest asset, even if Kimi's race fortunes improve. A few more wins and another bag of points coming up. |
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There can be no doubt that Kimi Räikkönen will break through for his first win this year, and possibly record several of them (mind you, we said this last year). He will unquestionably get the reliability to match his awesome speed this year, and along with Coulthard, Barrichello and Montoya will tussle for 2nd in the drivers' title behind Schumi. Like his predecessor Mika Hakkinen, Kimi is ice-cool under pressure, and last year demonstrated the stamina over the season as a whole that some thought were lacking in his debut year with Sauber. |
| Renault | |
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All things being equal, Renault ought to hold onto 4th in the constructors' title this year. After all, they have two fast, talented drivers who seem to be getting on well together, the resources of the Regie funding the whole effort, the organisational brilliance of Flavio Briatore, and the expertise of Mike Gascoyne. Except there is a palpable sense of scepticism surrounding then in 2003, suggesting that they might have to fight very hard to fend off the likes of Sauber, let alone challenge the big guns.
One key weakness will be the engine. This is the third and most probably the last year persevering with the wide angle motor, which is reputed to be up to 120bhp down on the rest, by far the least powerful in the field this year. Also, Briatore has taken a gamble and committed Renault to Friday testing, even though they have no resource problems. Having Allan McNish on board to test is a great asset, but one wonders if the R23's development as a whole during the course of the season will suffer as a result. |
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It will be an interesting year for Jarno Trulli as a result. He will not get as much track time throughout the year, but he will have the right set-up and tyres for each qualifying session and race. And, over a single lap, there are few who are quicker. Especially on tracks where horsepower is not as crucial, Trulli could be the star of the shoot-outs, and top 4 grid positions are not out of the question. Finally beginning to add solid race pace to his qualifying speed as well, but he will need to be at his best to hold off Alonso. |
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Anyone who can win at Spa in his F3000 debut season must be special, and many say that Fernando Alonso is special indeed. He is comfortable at Renault, and happy to be alongside Trulli with whom he has developed a healthy competitive rapport. It remains to be seen if a year out as Renault's tester has hurt his racing stamina and skills. He with undoubtedly score his first points this year, and may even collect a podium or two. He will set himself up along with Montoya and Räikkönen as superstars of the future. |
| Sauber/Petronas (Ferrari) | |
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I didn't ever think I'd say these words about the very Germanic team from Switzerland, but there is reason to be excited about Sauber in 2003. Although they along with Minardi are the only two teams without some level of official manufacturer support, they have a long-standing relationship with Ferrari which for this season means they inherit the engine and rear-end assembly from the peerless F2002. There is also some level of open communication between both teams, and Felipe Massa will be available to both.
Without a notable designer, the quality and efficiency of the chassis may cause some concern, but if any team can create an F2002 imitation it is Sauber with their Ferrari links. The Bridgestones, traditionally tailored to suit the Ferrari, will be less unfavourable for Sauber than for other teams. To put it mildly, the Swiss team ought to come 4th in the constructors' title, and may even pull off a surprise win in a race of extreme attrition. Even the C22's brighter livery shows that there is cause for optimism this year. |
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It may be time for Nick Heidfeld to stand up and be counted, though. After a stunning 2001 when he outpaced Kimi Räikkönen, and after missing out on a top drive, he became something of yesterday's hero in 2002 with solid but unspectacular efforts. Perhaps a soft touch mentally, but so is his new team-mate Frentzen, and with the latter in the twilight of his career, Heidfeld could be spurred on by a constructive, non-threatening working relationship. Should score a raft of 6ths, 7ths and 8ths. |
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Heinz-Harald Frentzen has been through his fair share of difficult teams since he left Sauber at the end of 1996. But when he was nurtured at Jordan in 1999, he delivered. The homely Sauber atmosphere, where he has always been a favourite son, may do the same for him this year. An elder statesman, he is not a young pretender in desperate competition with Heidfeld, and his Arrows efforts last year show that he has begun to shake off his former mercurialness and can be depended on for consistent speed. |
| Jordan/Ford | |
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At the start of 2000, after Deutsche Post had just joined Benson & Hedges as a Jordan sponsor, Eddie Jordan wrote a piece in F1 Racing in which his delight evidently spilled out through every word. He ended it by saying: "But now we've got the cash, watch us rock 'n' roll!" How times change. All of a sudden, they have gone from gallivanting princes to grievous paupers, and the scale of their financial problems, witnessed by the very plain yellow livery unveiled recently in Barcelona, has taken people by surprise.
Jordan need a return to racing basics, and with a Cosworth engine, one hungry talented driver at least, and what looks like a simple EJ13 chassis by Gary Anderson and Henri Durand they may just do that. With Anderson and Cosworth, there's a sense that Jordan are returning to their 1991 roots, and similarly points on a regular basis are definitely not out of the question. How much their lack of cash will hinder them as the year goes on, though, remains unanswered. |
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Giancarlo Fisichella's star continues to rise in the F1 fraternity. Seen by some as the 2nd best driver in F1, he was named recently as the 65th most important person in F1 history. As if! I, for one, don't understand all the hype. He is definitely fast, he can be consistent, but in '02 he had some poor weekends as well. Team-mate Firman should be no threat, so this is a golden opportunity for Fisi to put that talent to good use, score some podiums with brilliant drives, and show that he really is superstar quality. |
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Becoming Formula Nippon champ is nothing to be sneezed at, but Ralph Firman's selection - not for monetary reasons, says EJ - is real left-field stuff. Japan tends to be a graveyard for motor racing careers, but Jordan has given Firman a lifeline, just as he plucked a certain E. Irvine out of Japan ten years ago. Firman is a solid performer, and a 'nothing to lose' attitude plus Friday testing and the opportunity to learn all the tracks should hold him in good stead. More than a few points would be a surprise, though. |
| Jaguar/Cosworth | |
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After a succession of high profile team bosses were unable to steer Jaguar in the right direction to form a decent motor car, Ford has gone for the other extreme - to have virtually no team boss at all. David Pitchforth takes over the day-to-day co-ordination of the team, Mark Gillan is in charge of vehicle performance, and the experienced John Hogan will look after marketing. This, plus two new drivers, marks yet another completely new start for these chronic resource-squanderers.
The R4 is meant to be a conservative chassis after the disastrous R3. But then again so was the R2 after the R1. Although Ben Agathangelou seems to be an aerodynamicist on the rise, the team also boasts Malcolm Oastler - fresh from designing some pretty inefficient BARs. All this 'one step forward, two steps back' stuff looks sure to waste a powerful Cosworth CR-5 engine, although Friday testing may help the team achieve some solid race results. Jaguar will struggle though in '03, and could finish as low as 9th. |
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For 2002 rookie of the year Mark Webber, this is either the worst possible time to join Jaguar, or, if it is the start of the Leaping Cats finally getting their act together, perhaps the best time. He already has a reputation for excellent technical feedback, a diligent work ethic, no shortage of speed, but also the maturity to keep his car on the road. These can all be enhanced in 2003 regardless of his results, as long as he sticks to his own game and doesn't worry about Pizzonia. 7-8 points looks like a realistic maximum. |
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For Antonio Pizzonia, 2003 will be a baptism of fire. Having raced in F3000 he knows most of the tracks, but Friday testing will help him learn how to handle an F1 car around them. There's little question about his speed, but by all accounts he is still a temperamental fellow, which will not be helped by not having a firm team boss who can act as a mentor. Webber's solidity will be a good yardstick; if he learns from the Australian's example, he could end up himself being the best rookie of 2003. |
| BAR/Honda | |
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Last year, David Richards inherited Craig Pollock's BAR. 2003 though will be the first real year of BAR, Prodrive style. All the necessary restructuring and chiding was done, and all the hard decisions made last year, so this really ought to be a year of progress, and possibly a return to the top 6 of the constructors' table. Finally they may have a decent chassis, the BAR 05 penned by ex-Williams man Geoff Willis already looking sleeker and much less bulky and cumbersome than its predecessors.
Much will depend on whether or not Richards has convinced Honda to get its act together and produce a powerful engine that won't detonate. By all accounts Honda is getting more serious, but perhaps the motor is still down on grunt. Richards will also want to make sure that he doesn't spend too much time on rallying to the detriment of his F1 program, and he will need to keep an eye over the anticipated and seemingly inevitable needle between his two drivers. |
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Does Jacques Villeneuve seriously want to be in Formula One in 2004, or will the frustration of the BAR years finally make him throw his hands in the air? We shall find out this season. The Canadian had a promising tail-end of 2002, and perhaps awarding points down to 8th will motivate him to race hard all the time, which we all know his talent enables him to do. He must show that he is hungry to beat Button, instead of just believing that his status should put him ahead of the Englishman by right. |
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Jenson Button has had a relatively quiet off-season, but he is determined to rebound from his difficult years at Benetton/Renault and make a fist of his sojourn at BAR, where he has the confidence of knowing that Richards very definitely wants him in the team. Some of his race drives last year were fantastic, but he'll need to work on extracting qualifying speed. His battle with Jacques will be very closely-fought, but if the Canadian goes off the boil, Jenson can capitalise. An impressive season may be on the cards. |
| Minardi/Cosworth | |
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Try to work this one out: in 2002, when they had free Asiatech engines, Minardi have a big Malaysian sponsorship deal. Having discovered that Alex Yoong was really quite abysmal, they let go of their Malaysian funding for '03 - just as they start having to pay for Cosworths. This now being Paul Stoddart's third year at the helm, Minardi still lurch from year to year having to start from scratch, leaving them behind developmentally. Minardi is the only team in 2003 in which the negatives clearly outweigh the positives.
Stoddart needs to realise that his poor man's talk is now so monotonous, even sympathetic ears are cringing. Perhaps he needs to spend less time thinking about where his next deal's coming from, and more on how to maximise his cars' performance. Having paying test-drivers do not help one bit. In addition, the saga over their new Bridgestone tyre deal, and the lateness of the PS03 chassis despite Loic Bigois's aerodynamic expertise, leave Stoddart's prediction, of 10+ points (despite our fervent hopes and best wishes) look faintly ridiculous. |
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Justin Wilson, though, well deserves his F1 chance. His F3000 title season showed how consistent he can be, and as such he could have as impressive (but relatively pointless) a season as Mark Webber last year. His height is a problem though; even if he says he is comfortable with the PS03, the truth is his driving position is a little like a pregnant woman giving birth, and whether or not that will cause any worries over a full race distance remains to be seen. Will do well to score two or three points. |
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Stoddart has always liked Jos Verstappen, and now he's got his man. The Boss has had chances to join Minardi before, but has been put off by the uncompetitive machinery. Don't forget, this is the man who debuted in 1994 as Michael Schumacher's team-mate. How he'll respond with what looks like a tail-end car and an up-and-coming team-mate will be interesting to watch. For a man who was out-qualified 7-10 by Enrique Bernoldi in 2001, one-lap qualifying may be a struggle, but his racing abilities are beyond doubt. |
| Toyota | |
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Last year, undoubtedly the two most impressive things about Toyota were their powerful engine, and the team's overall attitude. Expect another superb motor this year, coupled to an even better, less conservative chassis into which Gustav Brunner will have had more input. But in 2002 the team's willingness to learn had a lot to do with Ove Andersson's leadership, but now the Swede has John Howett in a management level above him. One hopes that the team doesn't lose direction and focus as a result.
Indeed, Howett's arrival was part of a series of perplexing changes, all of which sought to undermine continuity within the team. They seem to have been made for business reasons by the big-wigs back in Tokyo. This ought to be a team with great potential, but one hopes that the Toyota executives aren't so stupid as to put business and car sales first, believing that simply by throwing money at the F1 program results will inevitably come. BAR's humbling story over the last four years show that this is never the case. |
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So much depends on Olivier Panis this year. His attitude towards testing, his technical nous and his racing ability are all factors that Toyota will need. He will need to be careful that he is not overburdened by the responsibility though, as he could turn out to be a one-man band on whom the team places a disproportionate amount of dependence. Not renowned for his qualifying, either he will struggle in the new format, or his experience may mean he knows exactly where to find the limit. |
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Although he has done alright in testing, Cristiano da Matta may find himself the least impressive of the rookies. Yes, he blitzed the opposition in CART last year, but prior to that he had not shown a spark that set him apart as a major talent. With little European racing background, he will need to get used to the Formula One mentality. Not to mention the fact that he hasn't seen the tracks, and with Toyota not opting for Friday testing, on many of them he will only have one hours' practice before first qualifying. |
| Conclusion | |
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Michael Schumacher should win his 6th world drivers' title, and Ferrari should still be too strong to overcome for the constructors' championship. You don't need to be a prophet to make those predictions. But behind Schumi, the battle for 2nd will be intense. I forecast a four-way stoush between Barrichello, Coulthard, Montoya and Räikkönen, with Ralf Schumacher being left a little bit behind. McLaren will have a slight edge over Williams, relegating the Grove team back to third place.
Points for 7th and 8th make predicting the rest a lot harder, since a lot will come down to reliability as well as speed. Sauber will claim 4th, Renault probably 5th by default, while BAR, Jordan and Toyota will fight for 6th, although Jordan and Toyota will rely almost entirely on Fisichella and Panis for points. Jaguar may well have a creditable season yet still end up 9th because the car is not fast enough, while Minardi will not always qualify or finish last now that they have Cosworth power, but will nonetheless end up 10th. REJECTS IN 2003: • The Renault and BAR liveriesBack to the top. |
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