Aerodynamically, the mid-wing is the only notable innovation, but one gets the feeling that a more radical front-end treatment could be on the way. In terms of strategy and tactics, Ross Brawn will need to be on the ball - 2003 was not his best year on the pit wall, and 2004 is not going to be any easier. What we can be sure of though is that Michael Schumacher is still supremely fit, still the best driver out there, and, worryingly for everyone else, still hungry for more success.

However, Michael has been known to crack under pressure, and in 2004 there will be more of it than ever. He can also still make mistakes in practice, and in 2004 these will be punished. He's also not the greatest starter, and there's now no launch control to help him. In the other car, expect another solid season from Rubens Barrichello, who, by generally being more consistent but less brilliant than Michael, might actually find the 2004 rules working in his favour. Still unlikely to challenge Schumi regularly though.

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The FW26 has also proven to be reliable, while few engines have been ready as long as the BMW, which must surely give them an advantage. Tactically Sam Michael is getting better and better, and last year in some races their pit crew even shaded Ferrari's. The biggest question mark is over how the drivers will work with the team. Everyone in the team is saying that they will work fine with McLaren's 2005 signing Juan-Pablo Montoya, but no one believes that there won't be some level of either tension, mistrust, or sheer apathy.

On the track, JPM must simply cut out the silly errors that cost him last year's title and build on the consistency that he started adding to his aggression in 2003. Meanwhile, Ralf Schumacher is fast alienating himself from the team because of his (and Willi Weber's) pay demands. This is a shame, because one gets a feeling that he could be in for a genuine title-challenging year. One gets the sense that he is about to reproduce on a regular basis performances like at the Nurburgring and Magny-Cours last year.

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At first, when the drivers called for more power from Mercedes, this may have been perceived as a case of sandbagging, but the calls for horsepower and reliability are now repeated to the point where the concerns must be real. When David Coulthard says that he wants the car to be fast in Melbourne, even if it doesn't finish, that doesn't bode well for either speed or reliability. In short, McLaren and Mercedes need to get their act together quickly to ensure that they're not behind the eight-ball early in the title chase.

Raikkonen's speed and race consistency is without question, going by his brilliant job last season, but he must cut out his qualifying errors. In the other car, many are predicting that Coulthard will thrive in the knowledge that the attention is on Raikkonen and that he is almost certainly the man who will make way for Montoya in 2005. If that is the case, and if that means he can approach single-lap qualifying with a less-muddled head, then in 2004 he may well be able to match Raikkonen point for point.

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The exaggerated-ness of the chassis looks amazing, especially around the nose, rear cowling, side-pods, and rear wing. The engine may be based on the 1999 Mecachrome block, but no-one's saying that it's not an improvement over the wide angle experiment. Having no launch control will hurt them, though. In the driving deparment, Fernando Alonso needs to back up his driver-of-the-year performance with more persistently forceful driving. If he does so, he will surely build on his win tally.

The Spaniard still has room for improvement in terms of work ethic, qualifying speed, and fewer errors, but another big season is expected. Jarno Trulli looks set to continue his improvement in terms of race speed, and many are predicting a breakthrough victory for him. However, he'll need a lot to go his way to achieve that; he'll have to beat Alonso, and everyone else from the big three teams. However good the Renault will be, it won't be dominant, so Trulli mustn't let his head drop if he doesn't win as predicted.

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The speed appears to be real, and not just a grab for headlines. With BAR now on Michelins as well, they are a definite contender for podiums, but may find it rather more difficult to crack the big four teams to achieve their first win. Whilst some suggest they will turn the big four into a big five, they should be content for the moment to be an undisputed 5th best snapping at the heels of the big four. They will depend especially on Button, who on 2003 form will score many points in 2004.

Indeed, it can almost be guaranteed that he will step onto the podium for the first time, as long as the Honda engine gives him the reliability to do so. Sato, on the other hand, seems to have lost that raggedness that plagued him early in 2002. Inexperience means he can only expect to come near or match Button without necessarily beating him. There are still some doubts over his ability to perform away from Suzuka, but coming within a tenth or two of Button at each track will do his reputation no end of good.

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From Sauber's perspective, though, even if it means they lose some of their independence, it surely must spell good news in terms of results. Last year they made a hash of the stuff Ferrari had offloaded to them, and on a good Bridgestone day, especially if it rains, this year they could seriously make amends. We continue to be unconvinced by Giancarlo Fisichella, but in a new team, with the Ferrari carrot dangling in front of him, this is an important season for the Italian.

He must show whether or not he has the desire and hunger, and most importantly the speed, because he has a rapid team-mate in the other car. Felipe Massa's speed is unquestionable, but by all accounts he's still as ragged as he was in his debut season in 2002, and perhaps this is giving Ferrari second thoughts about him. The one-engine rule, which conversely punishes practice crashes, may disadvantage him. Another season littered with accidents, and his stocks in the paddock, and with Ferrari, will crash as well.

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It's still unclear if Jaguar will be competitive, or if they will wallow in the lower midfield. Reliability seems to still be a problem, while Ford's wavering commitment remains frustrating. Keeping in mind also that they are fighting with Toyota to be the 5th best Michelin team out of 6, and that doesn't inspire confidence for massive points-scoring. Therefore, it is a vital year for Mark Webber if he wants to keep himself in the frame for a Williams or Renault drive. He must continue impressing whatever the car is like.

Scoring up to eight points should be a realistic if modest initial target, and if anyone can capture attention by his work ethic, speed and clear-headedness without a bag of points to show for it, then Webber can. Christian Klien, though, is unlikely to cause too much of a stir, but he should be able to show that he's capable. He still has too much to learn, and the 2004 pressure-cooker atmosphere is not really the best place to do it in. He's someone who seems to deserve to be in F1 though ­ but 2004 might be a year early.

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The TF104 looks like a conservative development of last year's car, when perhaps a more radical step is needed. Mike Gascoyne's input in developing the chassis is desperately needed, but he can only do so much if the chassis is poorly conceptualised. Tactically he will be an asset, though - Toyota's strategy last year was often awfully naïve. The engine promises to be powerful, but reliability is uncertain. Toyota must aim for where BAR appear to be; they should realistically try to be the 4th best Michelin team.

Olivier Panis did not fully do himself justice last year. He needs to assert himself more as Toyota's leading man, especially on Sundays, and he must not fall asleep in the middle stages of a race as he often did last year. Cristiano da Matta, though, is now in the 'F1 groove'. He could well usurp Panis as Toyota's front man if he hasn't done so already. If he can add qualifying speed to the race consistency he showed last year, he could exceed his tally of ten points from last year.

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The truth is that, in the last few years while EJ got his team embroiled in endless feuds with drivers, engine suppliers, sponsors, and other team bosses - losing out more often than not - the goalposts in F1 shifted dramatically. While we'd love to see them competitive again, the occasional point seems more likely. Nick Heidfeld may well thrive in the low expectations, though. He needs to recapture his 2001 form. Instead of just being consistent, he needs to find his maximum speed again.

In short, he needs to take the Jordan higher than where it should be if he is get noticed by the paddock again, because in truth he is in the last chance saloon, his once-promising career nearly washed up in his late-20s. In the other car, rookie Giorgio Pantano looks like being a solid performer, there's no sense that he's the next Ascari. He has a respectable record in F3000 though. One suspects that comparatively he'll do better than Ralph Firman did last year, and he might surprise.

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Neither driver causes a great deal of excitement, although Gianmaria Bruni did impress in Friday testing last year, and perhaps should have been given the race driver over the over-cautious Nicolas Kiesa. He could prove himself worthy of a better seat. Meanwhile, Zsolt Baumgartner will probably keep the car on the road, but he is probably not fast enough to merit a place in F1 in the long term. His tenuous financial situation means that there is no guarantee he will even see out the season.

Perhaps the most noticeable thing about the Hungarian will be the fun people poke at his name and all the different ways of trying to pronounce it. Minardi have just signed Bas Leinders as their third driver, with Tiago Monteiro flying the flag for Portugal in F1 as another sometime tester. Neither will add all that much to Minardi's development through the year. Minardi will continue to fight on as they always have done, but it's getting increasingly meaningless.

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BAR will establish itself as a clear 5th-best team, well ahead of the rest of the midfield. The others will be headed by Sauber and Toyota, with Jaguar and Jordan fighting each other for respectability and Ford's favours. Minardi will languish as usual. One hopes, however, that the Williams FW26 doesn't prove too successful - if the design catches on, we'd hate to think what the walrus nose will do for the aesthetics of Grand Prix cars in the future!

REJECTS IN 2004:

F1 aesthetics if the Williams does well.

Zsolt Baumgartner and Minardi.

Williams' relationship with its drivers.

Jordan's aim to be the 5th best team.

Sauber's protestations that they are an independent team.

Double-qualifying and the ultra-cautious first runs.

The one-engine rule and all its loopholes.

The penalty points system and the ten-grid-position penalty.

The cure for insomnia, a.k.a. Friday practice sessions.