Italian Grand Prix Review

Occasionally great drivers in great form suffer seasons where the pivotal one or two mishaps thwarted their championship hopes. Rarely if ever has such a continued sequence of misery afflicted the fastest driver in the fastest car, who otherwise would be romping to the crown. In the 15 races this year, Raikkonen has been struck by either mechanical or driving errors in 8 of them, either in practice or during the race: Australia, Malaysia, San Marino, Europe, France, Britain, Germany and now Italy.

Of course, he didn't race in America, and he came 3rd in Bahrain where he also had an off-track moment. The remaining five races, in which he has been trouble-free, he has won them all. Ironically, he won in Canada on one of the rare weekends this year when he was actually genuinely outpaced. Not that the 'would have, should have and could haves' in F1 count for anything, but those who say that Kimi should be well on his way to his first driver's championship by now are absolutely correct.

Monza was a case of disappointment on top of disappointment. On more fuel than just about anyone else in the field, he still qualified faster than anyone else by several tenths, but dropped to 11th on the grid after his third precautionary engine change during practice in six races. Mercedes Ilmor may have got their act together in terms of power output this year, and they are certainly not the sole cause of Raikkonen's failure to take the title this year, but my word they have been a serious culprit.

On his heavier fuel load Kimi made a mediocre start, was passed by Jacques Villeneuve in feisty mood, and found himself unable to overtake the Sauber until the first sequence of stops. He then happened to be trapped behind Ralf Schumacher, who was also going comparatively long. Vaulting a gaggle of Toyotas, BARs and Ferraris, he was then held up by Alonso himself, as the Renault emerged after a slow stop, instead of still being in clear air as he would have been had Fernando's stop gone to plan.

But again, one should not go on too much about how these incidents are somehow generating a false championship result, because that's not the case. The championship is not necessarily about who is the fastest car/driver combination; it is about who has the most points at the end of the year, and usually the two correlate, but not always. And, while there is skill in being the quickest driver and producing the speediest car, there is also great skill in being the most consistent driver and producing the most reliable car.

If there is to be any controversy over Raikkonen's ill-fated Monza weekend, it is the question of who gets credited with pole position. Is it Kimi, or Montoya? This was the first time since the ten-place grid penalty was introduced for pre-race engine changes that the man with the fastest qualifying time has been affected. It seems incongruous that Montoya, who was not the fastest man over the single lap, should be credited with the pole position just because he started at the head of the grid.

The intrinsic value in the pole position statistic is to recognise who was the fastest in the qualifying session (although in recent years that has already lost its lustre thanks to qualifying being on varying race fuel loads). If it merely rewards whoever starts at the head of the grid, then if the pole man stalls on the dummy grid or suffers a mishap on the warm-up lap and the driver who is second on the grid by default starts at the front, on that logic shouldn't this second guy be credited with pole position?

There may have been occasions when the fastest man had his best time disallowed, and as a result he lost pole position and someone who was not as fast is credited with it, but in this case Raikkonen's fastest time still stands. Perhaps the best argument for saying that Raikkonen should not be credited with the pole is that his time was set outside of the rules, i.e. on an engine that he did not start the weekend with. Sounds fair enough, but the penalty would have also applied had he changed engines after qualifying.

Anyway, enough about Kimi, his dramas overshadowed what was a very decent drive from Montoya, who is now closing in on 3rd place in the championship currently held by Michael Schumacher. One queries how much pressure he faced, given that Alonso was always content with 2nd, but JPM still had to stay on the road and keep his advantage, especially in the closing laps when he too found his rear left tyre delaminating. He gambled on staying out, and unlike Raikkonen at the Nurburgring, he won.

Alonso is now unashamedly chasing the podiums he needs to seal the title. Now he only needs 5th in each of the remaining races. Some may contend that Fernando will somehow be undeserving, and that his attitude of racing for podiums not wins is unbecoming of a champion. That would be wrong. He and Renault's ability to relentlessly pile up the points, and to ensure that they constantly perform to the best of their ability to realistically maximise their points score, is very much champion material.

You can't blame them for McLaren's inability to do the same. In fact, a conservative approach that aims to win the war but is prepared to lose some battles brings a set of pressures of their own. To use an example from golf, Greg Norman went into the last round of the 1996 US Masters with a six shot lead, and blew it all because he failed to cope with adjusting to a more conservative, lead-protecting, war-winning mindset. Alonso is showing no signs whatsoever of choking under pressure, and that is admirable.

When Alonso came out from his first stop right in front of Raikkonen, it was one of the few occasions that the two protagonists have actually fought wheel-to-wheel this year. Fernando made his point by resolutely fending off the McLaren before letting the Finn past. Perhaps Alonso should have made life even more difficult for Kimi, but there's a certain confidence in him effectively saying, "I trust in myself and my car's reliability, I don't need to be as desperate as you, I'm a full pit-stop ahead, you go first," isn't there?

Fisi's recent run of five points-scoring finishes in the last six races, including three 4ths and a 3rd now, also comes as the battle for the constructors' title takes centre stage. McLaren are only eight points behind Renault, but clearly have the speed to finish 1-2 in every race. The French team will obviously have to try to prevent that as much as possible, but to do that, first they had to give Giancarlo the car and the confidence to score regularly, and that is what they have done - to score big, first you have to score.

As has been increasingly the case as the season has wore on, Toyota did not attract much attention, but once again they were in the points. In fact, they have scored in every race that they have started in (not counting Indy) since Malaysia. Comparatively late pit stops were the key to Jarno Trulli and Ralf Schumacher leapfrogging the BARs and Ferraris, which made a refreshing change to seeing the Toyotas hold up their rivals and dropping down the field as the race progressed, which we have often seen this year.

Neither Jarno or Ralf are renowned for their use of pit strategy or their ability to put in banzai laps on call, so overall it was an impressive performance from both of them. Toyota are now within striking distance of wresting 3rd in the constructors' title from Ferrari, being only eight points behind. It is a battle that has gone unnoticed so far but it should now make for an intriguing sub-plot. On current form, if I were a betting man, I think I'd put my yen on the Japanese mob ...

Toyota ended up being 'best of the rest', but arguably that mantle could have been taken by Williams. Mark Webber said that this was the most competitive Williams had been since the first three races of the year (perhaps he had forgotten Monaco and the Nurburgring?), but from the testing and practice times it was indeed clear that the FW27 was right up there for a change. Webber was in the top 7 in all four free practice sessions, and set the 7th fastest lap of the race.

Webber was hampered by being the second to qualify as well as carrying a heavyish fuel load, and from 14th on the grid there was a 50-50 chance that he was going to get caught up in the traditional first chicane shenanigans. It has been said recently that, whilst not all of Mark's litany of incidents this year have necessarily been his fault, the very best drivers also have the defensive driving skills to know how to avoid an accident. Racecraft, or lack thereof, has been one of Mark's great weaknesses this year.

And so it was that, quite innocently, he tapped David Coulthard at the first chicane and had to change his front wing, thereby ruining his afternoon and leaving him a lapped 14th at the end. That was hugely ironic, given that DC had come out during the past week and labelled Webber a "hooligan". Mind you, if David was complaining about Mark giving him a chop in Turkey, he could be reminded that he did the same thing to the Williams driver in Melbourne ...

Webber of course was also involved in the drag race out of the pit lane with Takuma Sato's BAR. There was amazingly little attention on that incident. Mark had clearly left his pit despite the lollipop man rightly holding him back; for that kind of thing drivers have often been docked 25s from their race time in the past. Sato also clearly put his left wheels onto and probably over the blend line, and no action was taken there either. Perhaps the stewards were taking pity on two desperadoes duking it out for 15th place.

Webber will be particularly chastened if not humiliated by the fact that Antonio Pizzonia, the man with whom he had had a media slanging match before the season began, whom he had done his utmost to keep out of the second Williams seat, utilised a similar strategy to finish 7th despite having not been as fast as Mark all weekend. The Aussie could have finished there himself, or even higher, if he had kept his head. This was exactly the direct comparison with Pizzonia that Mark had been hoping to avoid.

BAR's qualifying pace on low fuel flattered to deceive; when the chips were down there was no hiding their lack of pace. When they held up the Toyotas and Ferraris early and yet were the first to stop, that gave the game away. Jenson Button did his best and maintained his recent run of points-scoring form (it was his sixth consecutive points finish), and it moved him up above Webber in the championship, but for Takuma Sato it was a case of more bad luck after what had been a very good qualifying lap.

There has sadly been an overall lack of spark in Taku's driving this year, although once again he has got the raw deal as far as misfortune is concerned, with a refuelling problem dropping him all the way down to an eventual 16th. His spot at BAR is under siege. Heidfeld has a bit each way with Williams, Sauber-BMW and BAR next year, plus there's Anthony Davidson in the mix as well. Sato's fate depends on where Button, Heidfeld and Davidson all go, and being a last resort can't be good for his morale.

Monza has seen so many triumphal Ferrari parades recently, especially when they had already sealed both titles by that stage. How symbolic of their ignominious downfall it was for them to freefall during the race and finish a pointless 10th for Schumacher and 12th for Rubens Barrichello. Even more symbolic was that Michael crossed the line to start his last lap just in front of Montoya - a lap in front and taking the chequered flag. Our 'Reject of the Race' award to Ferrari then, for what was, simply, a shocker.

Rubens had actually jumped Michael at the first stops and was staying ahead until he also suffered a rear-left delamination, to add to Bridgestone's woeful season. He hasn't scored a point in four races. Schumi was clearly driving hard all weekend to make something of it for the tifosi, but that led to errors as it invariably does with Michael, firstly with an accident in Friday practice, and then a messy race that saw him cut a chicane in his early battle with Trulli, and then go off again late in the race.

REJECT OF THE RACE
Ferrari
The Prancing Horse currently belongs in a glue factory

Although the wild rumours of Michael going off to McLaren are probably quite groundless, the suggestions of Raikkonen and Valentino Rossi at Ferrari in 2007 may not be, even if, for all the fairytale it would be, the concept of taking on the charismatic two-wheel champ despite his lack of experience in four-wheel single-seater racing would be a gigantic gamble. Felipe Massa must also love the vote of confidence, that the rumours about Ferrari's 2007 line-up have begun, and it doesn't include him.

Willi Weber says that Michael will decide his future in March 2006, which is extremely early. But the underlying message is that this horror 2005 has brought Schumi to the end of his tether. He may still enjoy racing, but he can't enjoy being humiliated. Unless Ferrari's 2006 challenger proves an instant world-beater that will give him one last hurrah, and unless Michelin's current grumblings cause them to drop the ball and Bridgestone improves dramatically, Schumi may not want to hang around much longer.

Sauber was generally competitive at Monza, and it was a rather competitive and robust drive from Villeneuve, although in the end he was outdone once more by Massa, who only started 15th but, not for the first time this year, demonstrated considerable race pace and made use of running longer on this stints. But it's still not enough to convince anyone that he is The Man. Still, he's clearly Sauber's number 1, and if BMW keep Jacques for next year, they are definitely keeping second best only.

Red Bull has had a season in which they are absolutely dynamite at some tracks, but can revert quite easily to midfield mediocrity at others. After their seriously impressive showing in Turkey, Italy was one of the latter, in which neither Coulthard nor Christian Klien were able to shine. Indeed, the biggest news surrounding Dietrich Mateschitz's team was news of their option to buy a controlling stake in Minardi, which may well be confirmed by this weekend at Spa.

Politically it would also be an extremely interesting move. Though nominally in the 'Group of 9', Red Bull have signed up to the FIA Concorde Agreement for 2008 and beyond, and, with Ferrari engines next year, are starting to be aligned with Maranello. One has always suspected that Paul Stoddart's eye for the dollar was stronger than his anti-Max Mosley shop-steward ranting, and if this means that Stoddart exits, stage right, from the Piranha Club, the FIA's political position strengthens somewhat.

As for Minardi in the present though, they and Jordan found themselves in the unique situation of fighting for 17th to 20th positions at the end, in a race with no DNFs - the first since the 1961 Dutch GP and only the second time in history it has happened. Once again, the two-race engine rule and one-race tyre rule, which may or may not have brought about cost-cutting, certainly has brought about super-reliability, which is sad. There was always a degree of welcome unpredictability in unreliability.

The EJ15B Jordan made its belated debut, and Tiago Monteiro used it to good effect to keep ahead of his backmarker rivals. The Portuguese driver is now just four races from a perfect 100% finishing record in his rookie year, no mean feat at all. Robert Doornbos continues to be not only steady and reliable but also speedy, and in his four starts so far he is showing that he is someone who deserves his place in F1, perhaps more so than his predecessor Patrick Friesacher did.

Narain Karthikeyan continues to be increasingly anonymous, but his race was destroyed by his first corner incident with Christijan Albers. For Christijan it was a weekend to forget, after a poor qualifying lap, that collision with Karthikeyan, and then a drive-through penalty for ignoring blue flags. He will be looking forward to Spa, the closest thing to a home GP for the two Dutchmen, as will we all. After all, who doesn't look forward to the annual pilgrimage to the best circuit in F1?