Renault CEO Carlos Ghosn has tried to assuage fears that Renault will withdraw after 2006. So what reason is there to doubt their ability to successfully defend their titles? Worryingly, the answer is the Spanish genius at the wheel of car number 1. Fernando Alonso is off to McLaren in 2007. He and the team will be professional enough to give 100%, but sometimes it's going beyond that which makes the difference. As the year goes on, you can't see the latest parts or 2007-spec experiments going onto his car.

Another Alonso title is certainly possible. But Renault are determined to show Fernando he's making a mistake, and they can do that if they take Giancarlo Fisichella to a title challenge as well. Fisi now rightly perceives an opportunity to make himself Renault's main man. He's talking up his ambition, but he will need to significantly raise his game. Having had what seems like an intriguingly larger share of the R26 testing than Alonso, it's not impossible that he will do just that. His driving style will also suit the V8s.

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There's also been the well-documented brain drain from their technical staff, and a Mercedes engine which is showing signs of being as ominously unreliable as some of their other recent efforts. No wonder rumours link Kimi Raikkonen to a move to another team come 2007 to make way for Alonso. Even if you're not a fan of his, you can't help but empathise with his aggravation if yet another championship campaign goes awry because of Ilmor. As happened in 2005. And 2004. And to some extent 2003.

One wonders how much Kimi's motivation will suffer if he is thwarted again. That is good news for Juan-Pablo Montoya. By the latter stages of 2005 he was starting to match Raikkonen, and he will feel as though he needs to make up for last season in which he was not at peak fitness for much of it. Plus if Raikkonen really is looking elsewhere, this is the Colombian's chance to assert himself within the team. JPM has much to play for in 2006. If the car hangs together, this could be a resurgent year for him.

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The reliability is not fully there. It hasn't been testing overly extensively, at time of writing it has yet to show any devastating speed. A return to tyre changes will help Bridgestone, but if chassis and engine aren't quite top-level, this year may spell the end of Michael Schumacher's career. He is and always will be awesomely fast, awesomely aggressive, awesomely great, but without clear signs of something better around the corner, one can't see why he would want to bother with fighting for 3rds, 4ths and 5ths.

Felipe Massa is in an unenviable position. It has been a quiet winter for him, which is not what you want when you have just landed one of the most prestigious seats on the grid. He will need to make some waves with his performances regardless of the car's capabilities, and try to put out of his mind Ferrari's continued interest in Valentino Rossi. Ferrari-domination years were rather dreary, but a year without a competitive Ferrari is almost as bad. Let's hope the 248 F1 is in a position to fight for wins.

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But things haven't been going well recently. The team have to deal with espionage charges. Switching to Bridgestones aren't a bad move now that tyre changes are back, but there seem to be inherent difficulties in blending the characteristics of the TF106 and the Japanese tyres. Jarno Trulli, who struggled late last year with the zero-keel TF105B, has not made much of an impression so far with this year's zero-keel creation, and once again he carries no momentum into this year after another poor end to a season.

Although he will still do well regardless of the format, the return to free-for-all qualifying will dent Jarno's superiority in that area. In the other car, Ralf Schumacher has been rather wayward during testing. His consistency was his strength in 2005, but Toyota have hired him for those moments of inspiration that we all know he has occasionally, and which he needs to rediscover. But at the current rate, although success for Toyota would be most welcome, it doesn't look like happening for the first few races.

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The new seamless shift gearbox has caused no end of trouble in testing, and despite solid performances the quick times just haven't been there. The type of people Sir Frank Williams, Patrick Head and Sam Michael are, they wouldn't be interested in points-scoring in testing, but they would be comforted if they were mixing it at the top of the timesheets. Although they say they would like to fight for wins, it feels like a 1988 or a 1998-99. Points, maybe some podiums but not wins seems the realistic appraisal.

After an up-and-down 2005, Mark Webber needs to remake his reputation. Solid, not wild race drives, some podiums and regular points this year will do just that, even if a win is out of range. A star of one-lap qualifying, like Trulli his advantage in that area will have been trimmed. Meanwhile, newcomer Nico Rosberg has shown good speed so far. With his genes, and on the back of his GP2 title, that's not a surprise. In a small rookie field this year he will stand out, and he is well capable of giving Webber a few frights.

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In recent weeks, Honda have come on strong with reliability as well as speed. They matched Renault in Barcelona, and advantageously were one of the few teams to test at Sakhir. As much as everyone loves to knock BAR-slash-Honda for being winless thus far, those in the know say Renault and Honda have the edge. Perhaps that first victory isn't far away. And even if Nick Fry hyperbolises when he calls Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello the best driver line-up in F1, he has just reason to feel positive about the pairing.

Both have the smooth style to maximise a V8's reduced torque curve, and Button too will be desperate to shake off the winless tag. Honda's keenness to keep him must give him a great deal of confidence. But potentially it is Barrichello who could have a big year. Freed from Michael's shadows at Ferrari, and coming out of a nothing season in 2005, he is finally in a position where he can get the job done for himself. There is every possibility that both Honda drivers could finish in the top six of the championship.

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Except that they were late getting their hands onto the Ferrari V8s, and once they did, they discovered an inherent cooling problem that has taken precious time to fix, severely restricting their running in recent weeks and hampering development. Having said that, the RB2s have begun to show flashes of speed, but they are behind the eight-ball and continue to lack reliability. This should not unduly worry David Coulthard; he starred last year and was revitalised by his new role as an underdog giant-killer.

As long as the Scot and his team remain realistic about their capabilities and don't get carried away by expectation, there is no reason why DC can't keep impressing and land the team's first podium. He will also revel in his renewed association with Newey and in the return to free-for-all qualifying. Christian Klien also needs to stay level-headed after a wonderful effort in 2005. He's proved that he's got what it takes, and he's secured the second RBR seat full time. He must aim to be consistently scoring points.

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Poor results will seem unsatisfactory, good results will be met by "So you should" comments. On the up side, the F1.06 has been decently quick right from the off, and their portfolio of sponsors is impressive. On the down side, testing has been hampered by inclement weather, and the pressure is on hitherto unspectacular tech chief Willi Rampf. Lead driver Nick Heidfeld has not raced for 7 months. He needs to - and undoubtedly can - rediscover the form that impressed so many whilst he was at Williams.

He returns to his old Sauber haunt and his blandness may actually provide the kind of leadership that suits the team. But how many last chances will Jacques Villeneuve get? His late confirmation shows BMW possibly didn't really want him but only kept him because of his contract, which runs out after '06 anyway. Hardly confidence inspiring; he will want to prove everyone wrong, but his driving style seems not to suit grooved tyres or V8s. A strong JV would be welcome though, because to see him struggling is quite painful.

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The new car hasn't been too shabby in the pace department either, suggesting that they won't be left floundering and could surprise. The biggest question marks, though, remain around the mysterious motives and financial resources of Alex Shnaider, and how much he will want to throw his weight around through his henchman Colin Kolles, or whether good-quality racing people who have the requisite nous like Adrian Burgess and James Key will be allowed to do their job properly.

MF1 will also be the only team running two pay drivers. Tiago Monteiro looks certain to continue his rapid improvement that he showed last year, which would be pleasing. Although another shock podium is off the cards, a smattering of points would do nicely. Christijan Albers, however, needs to reduce the petulance and actually produce results. The team also has a squad of four test drivers, which could hinder development and honestly makes you wonder if Shnaider really has that much money to play with.

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But all involved have staunchly maintained the two teams' independence. Toro Rosso has undergone its own test program and has looked OK if not earth-shattering. In Franz Tost they have an astute and capable team boss, and the recent acquisition of 50% of the team by Gerhard Berger shows that Toro Rosso are serious in and of themselves and not just Red Bull's lackeys. If the STR01 is up to the task, and the equivalence formula is such that the V10 is competitive, they won't be at the back by default.

Liuzzi was shut out of the Red Bull seat by Klien last year. He scored a point on debut but otherwise didn't show the same spark that marked him out as the last ever F3000 champion. The jury is still out on him. Speed will be the first American to race in F1 since Michael Andretti, and though he has what his surname suggests, his GP2 and A1 GP results provide cause for some concern. His form in testing hasn't been flash either. Perhaps third driver Neel Jani would have been a better choice.

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In a year when the rest of the field seems to have evened up, Super Aguri are the obvious candidates for the 11th row of the grid. Realistically they can only aim for respectability, and it would be fantastic if they can achieve it, not to mention a minor miracle. A new team in Formula One is a terrific thing, but only if that team has some degree of quality about it. The good news is that Aguri Suzuki and Daniele Audetto are going about their daunting task seriously and methodically, which is a positive sign.

Anyone else in Sato's position might respond to the challenge - a no-pressure environment in which to rebuild a devastated "bonsai not banzai" reputation. But for Taku, it is a potential recipe for too much hard-trying and more off-road exploration. Let's hope we're proven wrong. Meanwhile, Yuji Ide is a totally unknown quantity. Doing well in Formula Nippon is one thing, but Eurocentric racing, of which he has one season in French F3's worth of experience, is something else. Expect him to struggle.

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Toyota with Gascoyne will no doubt improve as the year goes on from their troubled baseline, likewise Red Bull with Newey, while Williams and BMW look to be solid and competitive enough to occasionally cause real headaches for their rivals. There seems no reason why any of these four teams can't find their way to the podium. Plus questions abound as to where MF1 and Toro Rosso's reorganisation will land them. The only near-definite is that Super Aguri will be left on their own at the back.

REJECTS IN 2006:

V8 engines and cost-cutting ... yeah right.

Another (confusing) qualifying system.

F1 aesthetics as side-pod flip-ups and mini-wings sprout everywhere.

Ferrari's step front-wing and side-pod mirrors.

The Belgian GP off the calendar again.

Too many red and white/silver colour schemes.

Mercedes reliability.

Super Aguri. Enough said.

Controversy over the equivalence formula for Toro Rosso's V10.

Yuji Ide, Scott Speed and Christijan Albers.

Felipe Massa at Ferrari.

Where in the world is Zsolt Baumgartner?