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F1 Rejects presents our Annual
F1 Season 2008 Preview
All the drivers, all the teams, all the opinionated babble! |
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| Ferrari | |
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The red corner comes into 2008 seemingly serene and full of confidence, and why not? They were handed the constructors' championship last year on a plate, and they snatched the drivers' crown as well in pretty much a fair fight. The F2008 is clearly an evolution of a winning formula, and in testing established an immediate advantage of up to half a second on long runs although McLaren may have pegged them back already. But no-one is questioning the fact that Maranello start the season as favourites.
However, if last year they managed to cope without Michael Schumacher and Ross Brawn, this year they won't even have Brawn to consult in emergencies and they won't have the organisational guiding hand of Jean Todt on race weekends, as Stefano Domenicali takes the reigns of the racing operation. There are no signs that that will pose any major difficulties, but it is an unknown factor should any crises arise or if Ferrari need to respond quickly should McLaren or anyone else steal an advantage. On the driving front, Kimi Raikkonen also begins the season as favourite to successfully defend his world title. Not only will he have the confidence that a championship generates, but he is now familiar with the team and with the Bridgestones and he won't have that lull that set him back in the first third of last year. The question is whether Felipe Massa can lift his game to sustain a title challenge and win races other than from starting on pole, but one suspects he won't quite have Raikkonen's relentlessness. |
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| BMW Sauber | |
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The Swiss-German co-operation emerged last year as a clear best-of-the-race, and the most likely to steal podiums if not an elusive win from Ferrari and McLaren. However, in the final three flyaway races of 2007 there were signs that they were slipping back into the clutches of other pursuers, and the off-season has confirmed that trend. The F1.08 was meant to be an aggressive evolution that would propel the team forward again, and be the next step towards race glory, but their winter testing has been troubled.
An inherent aerodynamic and balance issue has set them back, forcing them to try solutions such as those bizarre viking horns on the nosecone, and rendering their testing performances inconsistent. Internally the team are still talking up the goal of that first win, and rivals remain wary of Munich's potential, but for the moment they seem to suffering second-album syndrome. Having reached lofty heights that they were not accustomed to, the challenge is to maintain the standard rather than surpassing it. One feels that all this will be of little import to Nick Heidfeld, who is best at maximising situations and racking up points. He will extract the most out of what the car can do. If it will only score points, he'll do just that; if it has the speed to win, he could challenge. But the pressure is on for Robert Kubica. He didn't have an atrocious 2007, but he was generally outpaced by his team-mate. If he is to remain with Hamilton, Kovalainen and Rosberg at the forefront of the next generation, he will need to match and beat Heidfeld. |
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| Renault | |
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Renault has been telling everyone how much motivation they have and how much effort they will put in to reversing their fortunes in 2008, and there's little doubt that that's true. For sure they have understood the shortcomings of the R27 and will have implemented solutions into the R28. They have Fernando Alonso back to push them along. But there is also no denying that the R28 is evolved from the R27, and if Renault have made gains, then so has everyone else during the off-season.
And so they look poised to remain around half a second or more off the leading pace, with no wins on the foreseeable horizon and they may have to scrap hard against BMW, Williams and Red Bull for podiums. This will pose a big test for Alonso - what will the reduced potential for victory but the better team dynamics do for his own motivation? Given how much his performances last year - some of them brilliant - were driven by anger, a more comfortable environment and a results letdown presents a tempting risk. That is, of course, unless Nelson Piquet Jnr succeeds in ruffling his feathers in the same way Hamilton did. Except that whereas the typical Piquet personality can be a real pain, despite talking the talk Nelsinho doesn't appear to be quite on the pace in testing and may be a few tenths off Alonso for a while. The opposite of Hamilton, if you like. And even if Piquet does start having an impact on team dynamics, Flavio Briatore is wily enough to manage things infinitely better than Ron Dennis did. |
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| Williams / Toyota | |
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Williams have surprised some onlookers with their pace in off-season testing, but take one look at the last few races of 2007 and it was clear that they were already starting to wrest the best-of-the-rest mantle from BMW. With no glitzy launch to boot, the FW30 appears to be a well-balanced, no-nonsense, no-trickery machine which is typical of the lean, mean approach that Williams adopt these days. It is an expression of the pure racer's instinct that still burns in Sir Frank Williams and Patrick Head.
They aren't awash with cash but their funding is healthy enough, and there is no indication that Toyota is anything less than fully supportive as Williams' engine partner. All this bodes well for Nico Rosberg, who emerged as a real team leader last year and looks like sustaining his upward surge. As long as he and his team can sort out their Q3 strategy, which they didn't always get right in 2007, in order to fully utilise the speed of the car, then regular podiums should be the aim. The German will be helped by having Kazuki Nakajima in the other car. Yes he is a Toyota-influenced signing. But yes he actually is rapid, as fast as Sato or Katayama at their best, and yes he appears to have a steady head on young shoulders, being well-guided by his F1 father Satoru. He has the potential to be a regular points-scorer this year, and that will suit Williams just fine. That's because, no he won't be able to trouble Rosberg consistently, and Nico can focus solely on getting his own job done. |
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| Red Bull / Renault | |
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The energy drink advertisement on wheels showed some real development potential with the RB3 towards the end of last season while the other teams were tapering off and looking towards 2008, but instead of that being a disadvantage, they have used that form to generate some real momentum going into this year. The RB4 isn't much different on the outside, apart from that remarkable engine cover fin, but significant internal modifications have given the team genuine best-of-the-rest-challenging pace.
With the old school Williams technical duo of Adrian Newey and Geoff Willis on board, there is once again huge potential from a much better starting platform than last year, and Red Bull could surprise. The biggest question mark, obviously, is whether the persistent search for pace continues to come at the cost of reliability, which hurt them badly in 2007. The one area where they were weakest last year - the gearbox - is the one they have to make last four races in a row this year... The signs so far on the reliability front are positive, but no-one can really be sure until it is tested in race weekend conditions. David Coulthard still offers a wise head, experience and solidity, but last year showed that that might not be enough any more. He hasn't shown a touch of extra spark for a long time. But as for Mark Webber, the Aussie is desperate to get his hands on a reliably and consistently competitive car. If everything falls into place, 2008 might just be that year, and a haul of up to 25 points could beckon. |
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| Toyota | |
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Toyota have always been so middling that so few people take notice, but the signs coming out of Cologne this off-season have been interesting. The TF107 is the only car in the field that departs drastically from its predecessors, although it has a McLaren's front end, a Renault's side pods, and a back half inspired by Ferrari and BMW. The team has had to come to grips with their new beast, and were off the pace in early testing and in Bahrain, but Jarno Trulli set a fastest time in one of the final test days.
The normally commonsense Italian has been coming out with protestations that Honda or Ralf Schumacher at their most outlandish would be proud of, saying that Toyota will be best of the rest and nipping at Ferrari and McLaren's heels. Meanwhile, new driver Timo Glock, last year's GP2 champion following on from Hamilton and Rosberg no less, has generally been at the bottom of the timesheets, and been quoted as saying that Toyota might need to go backwards first, and for punters not to expect too much. So where does the truth lie? Glock is probably lowering expectations to keep the pressure off, which given Toyota's track record is probably an intelligent thing to do. Trulli may also have a point - the new car is far more in tune with current thinking than older models, and Toyota certainly has the budget and manpower. But they will have to overcome BMW, Williams, Renault and Red Bull, which is a big ask, and so the reality is that Toyota will most likely be found - surprise, surprise - in the middle once again. |
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| Toro Rosso / Ferrari | |
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Toro Rosso have had a quiet and unobtrusive off-season. They made the early decision to start this season with last year's STR02, also known as last year's Red Bull RB3, which given the pace of all four Red Bull cars at Japan and China last year is not necessarily a bad move. Later in the year they will run their own version of this year's RB4, which by then will have been nicely sorted by big brother, thumbing their nose at the noise which Colin Kolles and others will no doubt continue to make in vain about customer cars.
Beginning the year with last season's car means a well-known package which is reliable and holds few mysteries for the team. The early races could thus present the team with a terrific opportunity to sneak into the points, but it may get harder from there given how tight the midfield is going to be. Sebastian Vettel, who gave the team a much-needed lift once he joined them in the last third of 2007, looks set to continue maturing as a driver and developing his considerable talent away from the spotlight. That is because a lot of attention will be on how Sebastien Bourdais fares. The four-time Champ Car champion finally gets his F1 opportunity, which some say is long overdue. But the Frenchman has his doubters, fuelled by the lack of quality in Champ Cars over the past few years, by the example of Michael Andretti and Alex Zanardi, and by the fact that he is yet to set the track alight at the wheel of a Grand Prix car. Time will tell, but don't be surprised if he can only match Vettel without beating the young German. |
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| Honda | |
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As they say, do the crime, do the time. With the announcement of the coup that Honda had signed Ross Brawn from Ferrari, Jenson Button declared that the team should be back to where they were at the end of 2006. Since then there has been a deathly silence coming out of Brackley as the RA108s consistently prop up everyone else on the testing timesheets. The harsh reality appears to be that last year proved they had gone down a technical and design dead-end. This year they are simply paying the penalty for that.
Nick Fry and co rang in the backroom changes throughout last year, the most significant of which was to bring in Brawn, but the new team was gelled too late to have an effect on this year's car. The RA108 still looks Neanderthal and bulky, and the word is that the amount of ballast they are using is proof of fundamental weight distribution issues. With radical changes for 2009 and the potential for starting with a clean slate, Brawn looks to have made the decision to give this season up before it's started. That could be a brave call from a man who knows how to get the job done because it means that, while they will work their hardest to improve this year's animal, they are resigning themselves to another year of pain. Which means Button's talent may continue to be wasted, while Rubens Barrichello may spend another year drifting in anonymity. For a man who will become the most experienced F1 driver of all time this year, that could be the death knell. We'd be surprised if Honda score more than 10 points in '08. |
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| Super Aguri / Honda | |
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Everyone loves Super Aguri (or should), and in a perverse way their current off-track dramas just makes everyone else, ourselves most definitely included, love them even more. None of this start-the-season-with-last-year's-race-winning-Honda malarkey as they did last year; this is back to where they were two years ago, with an uphill battle just to make it onto the grid, and with the promise that even if they manage it, they'll be propping up the rest of the field.
Results-wise, the signs are hardly encouraging. They haven't tested seriously since December excepting a brief run at Jerez in February. They'll either use last year's car which by now is horribly outdated, or they'll use a version of that pile of junk known as the Honda RA107 - no-one really knows. They have only just confirmed Takuma Sato and Anthony Davidson. They have sold their soul to some crew called the Magma Group, and have done a deal with Honda to have its support continue. But the finer, long term detail of neither agreement seems set in stone. Apart from simply being in F1 this year there isn't much else for Taku or Anthony to look forward to. This is Andrea Moda-esque mayhem and disorganisation which is completely at odds with the clinical example of all the other teams in pit lane. It is disastrous for the team's on-track prospects this year, but it's a throwback to less sterile bygone days, and who doesn't love a battler? |
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| Force India / Ferrari | |
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The likes of Toyota and Honda, and before them BAR and Jaguar, are living proof that money does not buy F1 success. Nevertheless, the latest incarnation of Jordan, having had its identity go from Ireland to Russia (Midland), to Holland (Spyker) and now to India, will welcome the injection of cash that Dr Vijay Mallya has brought with him. What Mallya hasn't brought with him, though, is a new car, with the VJM01 being an upgraded version of the B-spec Spyker seen towards the end of last season.
There are obvious limitations to what a team can do with a concept that's getting long in the tooth, but doing a lot with a little is Mike Gascoyne's forte and he already seems to have extracted some extra speed from the white and gold-liveried car. Likewise, although he did sadly little for Renault, Giancarlo Fisichella has the knack of being able to lift a middling machine above its station, as he often did with Jordan in 2003 and Sauber in 2004. Fisi will have to do that and nibble at the midfield, maybe pick up the occasional point, if he is to avoid the retirement home. He'll also need to do that to keep Adrian Sutil at bay because, so long as he keeps the car on the track which he should do more of in his second season, the German is very quick. But with a name like Force India, but two Italians in the driving line-up (including tester Tonio Liuzzi) plus a German, and an Italian engine, there's not a single Indian in sight. Disappointing. |
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| McLaren / Mercedes | |
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The ignominy of numbers 22 and 23 doesn't mean much - especially when McLaren aren't even relegated to the end of the pit lane but have been given the fifth gantry in order to accommodate their massive motorhome, sorry, Brand Centre. And it certainly won't mean anything when the silver cars fight with Ferrari for the World Championship, which on testing form is what they are promising to do. Although they started behind Ferrari's pace, by the end of testing they were topping the times.
Particularly in the rear half of the car McLaren has taken an aggressive developmental approach this year, and it's the continued pace of development that had the team leading both of last year's championships for most of the season. Lewis Hamilton is showing no psychological effects of last year's Greg Norman-esque choke, and is the man most likely to stop Raikkonen from retaining the title. He can now afford to focus on his driving rather than playing mind games with his team-mate. That is not to say that Heikki Kovalainen will be a pushover. Far from it - the Finn impressed greatly in the second half of 2007, and McLaren works well with Finns. It's just that Heikki will race Lewis on the track rather than in the garages, although one expects Hamilton to have the upper hand. But McLaren will need to be careful nonetheless. Both their drivers are veterans of one season only, and rumours are that Ron Dennis is on his way out. Could inexperience be a factor in McLaren's season? |
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| Conclusion | |
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It would be nice if someone breaks the established order and provides a surprise, but at this stage it looks unlikely. It will be a Ferrari versus McLaren battle royale again, with nothing in it between Raikkonen and Hamilton, and maybe Massa too if he can find a touch more consistency. It will surprise if Kovalainen is in with a shot at the title late on. Behind them, Williams look like emerging as the next best team, but really there's not much to choose between them, BMW, Renault and Red Bull.
Toyota could be in the mix as well if Trulli is right about their potential, which could make for a regular log-jam of ten to fourteen cars per race scrapping over the eight points-paying positions. It will probably take attrition for Toro Rosso and Force India to break into the points, but with old cars they may just do it. Honda's challenge is to avoid further embarrassment and get into the midfield at least, while Super Aguri's battle is simply to start, and then survive, the season. REJECTS IN 2008: Back to the top. |
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